#206 Big 2025 Predictions & Venture Banks
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Big 2025 Predictions (or Provocations)
We’re back - excited for a big year! At the end of each year, my LinkedIn, X, and email inbox is flooded with year-end retros looking back and big predictions (or provocations) looking forward. What happened last year that we got right / wrong?! Where are things going in the year that lies ahead?! While I have plenty of thoughts (and will share them), I thought it’d be fun to highlight some of my favorite ones to reference as you kick off the new year. Favorites in bold.
What Will Happen in 2025 (Fred Wilson’s Provocations)
I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun.
1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025.
2/ Waymo will surpass Uber in rides taken in SF and LA by the end of 2025.
3/ Direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the US in 2025.
The next big thing in 2025 will be... (Nikhil Trivedi)
For the 5th year in a row, 50 of technology's top thinkers weigh in on the year ahead.
2024 has been a strong year for investors and an exciting year for technology. Public markets have had a great year (Nasdaq +33%, S&P +25%, Dow +13% for the year). Technology has had a transformational year, with significant advancements in AI, robotics, space, biology, healthcare, carbon capture, and quantum computing. So what does 2025 have in store for us?
the rise of software creators (jmj): "The next big thing in 2025 will be the "YouTube-ification" of software. Building software will become the next frontier of creative expression. Just as video production once seemed daunting, AI coding assistants are turning us all into software developers. Why only do a podcast when building a high quality, monetizable software product will be as simple as making a YouTube video?"
Venture Banks (credistick)
In venture capital circles, the most widely discussed trend of 2024 (outside of AI) has been the concentration of capital into “venture banks” like Andreessen Horowitz, General Catalyst and Thrive Capital. The household names of venture capital have had a blockbuster year, while others carefully ration the tail-end of their last fund.
The first quarter opened with Andreessen Horowitz and General Catalyst scooping up 44% of the available capital. 2024 is closing on a similar note, with 9 firms having captured more than half of all funds raised so far. The 30 most capitalized firms this year collectively represent three quarters of the pool raised by at least 380 funds.
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